Restoring peace in Syria

What to know?

• Russia is emerging as the unrivaled powerbroker. The Kurds are facing an existential threat. And Iran is solidifying its position in a country far from its borders.
• Those are just some of the unintended consequences of the hasty decision last month by U.S. President Donald Trump to withdraw American troops from Syria, a decision that triggered broad opposition in Washington and prompted the departure of his defense secretary and another top official.
• Though the withdrawal is not in full swing—and might not be as comprehensive as Trump envisioned—the decision is already prompting a shift in alliances and interests in country wracked by years of civil war and long the focus of regional rivalries.
• Moscow has a strong interest in maintaining influence in Syria, both from an economic and a political perspective. Syria has long been a lucrative market for the Russian defense and intelligence sectors. Meanwhile, Bashar al-Assad’s survival is a strategic win for Moscow, which has backed the Syrian President.
• But observers worry that Russia’s elevated position in Syria paves the way for Moscow—and through it, Tehran—to cement its outsize influence in the region, and for Assad to regain the power he had before the civil war began.

Kurdish people: –

• Since the announcement of the U.S. withdrawal, Russia has become the mediator between the Assad regime, Turkey, and the Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF)—a critical U.S. ally in the fight against the Islamic State—in negotiations over northeast Syria.
• The SDF is predominantly made up of Kurdish fighters, whom Turkey views as an extension of the Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), a U.S.-designated terrorist group, as well as Sunni Muslims.
• The fate of the Kurds hangs in the balance. As U.S. troops pull out, the Kurds are more vulnerable to attack from the Turks across the border. By the same token, the group has lost any leverage it had in negotiations with the Assad regime over the region.
• Making matters worse for the Kurds, Turkey said it would establish a 20-mile “safe zone” between Turkey and the Syrian Kurds in the northeast part of the country. Experts fear such a move would essentially yield that part of Syria to the Turks, leaving Syrian Kurds and Kurdish border towns such as Kabani at their mercy.
• Last year, Turkish-backed troops plundered the formerly Kurdish-held area of Afrin and have threatened to attack Manbij, an SDF-held town about 20 miles to the east.Fearing that Turkey will launch an all-out offensive, the SDF has asked Moscow and Damascus for protection.
• Putin is pushing for an alternative to Turkish occupation of Syrian soil. In his meeting with Turkish President Recep Tayyip Erdogan, Putin pressed for the resuscitation of a 1998 security treaty between Turkey and Syria. For Putin, the goal is to put Assad in charge of the border region.
• Syria is demanding that Turkey withdraw its forces from Syria before the treaty can be revived.
• For the Kurds, dealing with Russia and the Assad regime is the better of two bad options.The fate of the Sunni fighters, who are aligned with the Syrian opposition against Assad’s Shiite-backed government, and the Sunni population in northeast Syria is also in doubt.
• If the Kurds cut a deal with Assad, the majority Sunni areas will likely face isolation or worse from the regime. As they did before the Islamic State sweep of Iraq and Syria in 2014, many disempowered Sunnis could become recruits for the militant group.
• Without U.S. support, the SDF itself, an entity created by the United States to sanitize the notion of partnering with the Kurds, could fragment. The Islamic State could seize on that weakness.

 Presense of Iran: –

• Meanwhile, Russia and the Assad regime are looking the other way as Iran quietly exerts influence throughout the country, with the goal of creating a land bridge from Iran through Iraq and Syria to Lebanon. Iran’s leaders are applying soft power, employing strategies from their experience with Hezbollah in Lebanon, where Tehran has entrenched itself not only militarily, but also politically, religiously and culturally.
• Across Syria, Iran is purchasing real estate, constructing new Shiite meeting halls, mosques, and schools, and slowly replacing Sunni communities with people friendly to Iran and the Assad regime. It is also transforming local Sunni mosques into Shiite religious centers and shrines, opening Farsi-language centers, and offering high-paying jobs to young, unemployed Sunni residents. Some even opt to join Iran’s militia, for about $200 a month, rather than be conscripted or killed by the Assad regime.
• Syria and Iran signed 11 agreements and memoranda of understanding, including a “long-term strategic economic cooperation” deal aimed at strengthening cooperation between Damascus and one of its key allies in the civil war that has torn the country apart.The agreements covered a range of fields including economy, culture, education, infrastructure, investment and housing
• They were signed during a visit to Damascus by Iran’s First Vice President Eshaq Jahangiri. It was a message to the world on the reality of Syrian-Iranian cooperation, citing “legal and administrative facilities” to benefit Iranian companies wishing to invest in Syria and contribute “effectively to reconstruction”.
• The agreements included two memos of understanding between the railway authorities of the two countries as well as between their respective investment promotion authorities.
• The civil war has taken an enormous toll on the Syrian economy and infrastructure, with the cost of war-related destruction estimated by the UN at about $400 billion.Iran and Syria had already signed a military cooperation agreement in August while Tehran has supported Damascus economically during the conflict through oil deliveries and several lines of credit.
• The new agreements come against the backdrop of fresh US sanctions against Iran, while Syrian President Bashar al-Assad’s regime and several Syrian business people and companies are already on US and European blacklists.
• They also come as Israel has repeatedly pledged to keep arch-foe Iran from entrenching itself militarily in Syria, where the war has already claimed more than 360,000 lives and displaced several million people.

 Turkey’s action

• Ankara is aiming to form safe zones in northern Syria so that Syrian refugees hosted by Turkey could return to their home country, President Recep Tayyip Erdogan
• 300,000 Syrians had already gone back to areas controlled by Turkish-backed rebels in northern Syria, adding that he expected millions of Syrian nationals to return to the proposed safe zones.Turkey hosts about four million Syrian refugees.
• On Friday, Erdogan said that Turkey expected the safe zone to be set up within a few months, otherwise, it would establish a buffer area without the help of other nations. 
• He added that the zone will aim to protect Turkey from “terrorists”, referring to the US-backed Syrian Kurdish militia that controls areas in northeastern Syria along the Turkish border.
• Ankara wants the zone to contain the fighters of the Kurdish People’s Protection Units (YPG), which the United States has armed and trained to fight against the Islamic State of Iraq and the Levant (ISIL, also known as ISIS).
• The YPG is seen as an effective ground force by the US in the fight against ISIL, but Turkey says it is linked to the outlawed Kurdistan Workers’ Party (PKK), which Ankara and Washington list as a “terrorist” group.
• US demands security guarantee for Kurdish YPG from Turkey
• It is just 20km west of Afrin, which was taken by Turkey and its Free Syrian Army (FSA) allies in an operation last year aimed at driving out the YPG militia.
• The YPG has rejected the idea of a “security zone” set up by Ankara, fearing a Turkish offensive against territory under their control.
• Erdogan and Trump have had several telephonic conversations to discuss the proposed security zone, as well as the US troop withdrawal from Syria. 

 Life of civilians: –

• The Syrian Democratic Forces (SDF), a U.S-backed and Kurdish-led group, has intensified its offensive in the last area held by the extremists since U.S. President Donald Trump announced plans to withdraw American troops last month. The ground offensive is taking place under the cover of airstrikes by the U.S.-led coalition.
• The extremist group, which once controlled around a third of Syria and neighboring Iraq, is now besieged in a small area in eastern Syria where it has been relying on suicide attacks to stop the advance by SDF fighters. The area has been shrinking since the SDF began its offensive on Sept. 10, and hundreds of fighters on both sides have been killed.
• Despite the intensity of the offensive and the airstrikes some IS fighters holed up in two villages are refusing to surrender and have continued to inflict losses among the attacking forces while using civilians as human shields.
• The DeirEzzor 24, an activist collective, reported that dozens of civilians had left the area, adding that the SDF captured a local IS commander and his bodyguard.
• The Kurdish Hawar news agency, based in northern Syria, reported that SDF security agents were able to detain IS members who fled among civilians.

Israel and Russia

• Netanyahu’s reported meeting with the Russian officials comes amid growing tensions between Israel and Iran in Syria, where Moscow is the main power broker.
• Russia and Iran are both supporting Bashar al-Assad’s regime in Syria, which makes them de facto partners on the ground.
• But Iran’s senior leadership has reportedly been underwhelmed by the lack of collaboration with Moscow.
• Last week, Russia’s Deputy Foreign Minister said his country was committed to the security of Israel,as he commented on recent events in Syria.
• Distancing himself from Tehran, Sergei Ryabkov refuted the idea that Russia was Iran’s ally in Syria.  
• Moscow has attempted to keep a semblance of peace, brokering for the Iranians to pull back from the Syrian-Israeli border, and only responding to Israeli strikes in Syria (including on Syrian military equipment, provided by Russia) via diplomatic channels.
• Moscow did not succeed in persuading Iran to remove its forces, but President Vladmir Putin has spoken to Germany’s Chancellor Angela Merkel about the issue, agreeing that Iran needs to steer clear from the Golan Heights, according to Merkel
• Israel insists that Iranian forces be removed from all of Syria, especially the region around the Golan Heights.
• Earlier this month, Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu reiterated that Israel will never leave the Golan Heights, which it captured from Syria in the six day war in 1967 and formally annexed 1981.
• Earlier this month, Netanyahu broke with its policy of ambiguity, revealing that Israel had carried out hundreds of airstrikes against Iranian targets in Syria in recent years.
• Israel later carried out further airstrikes on Iranian targets near Damascus International airport, causing Iran to respond with a surface to surface missile directed at Israel.
• Russia reacted to the Israeli airstrikes, saying they should be halted.

(International)(The hindu, BBC, Foreignpolicy)

Pic courtesy: Daily Sabah