Climate Change Threatens Over One-Third of Terrestrial Habitats by 2085

Climate Change Threatens Over One-Third of Terrestrial Habitats by 2085

A recent study published in Nature Ecology & Evolution warns that climate-driven extreme weather events could affect 36% of the species’ current terrestrial habitats by 2085. The study was conducted by an international team led by the Potsdam Institute for Climate Impact Research, analysing global biodiversity exposure under climate scenarios. It uses climate projections, impact models, and species distribution data to assess risks to terrestrial ecosystems. The concept of “compound extremes” is central, where multiple hazards occur simultaneously or sequentially, amplifying ecological damage. The findings indicate that current conservation strategies may be inadequate, as they often fail to account for sudden and overlapping extreme events.

Key Findings of the Study

¨     36% of land animal habitats at risk: By 2085, nearly 36% of terrestrial vertebrate habitats could be exposed to multiple extreme weather events under a high-emission scenario, indicating a substantial escalation in climate-related risks to biodiversity.

¨   Large-scale scientific assessment: The study is based on a comprehensive analysis of 33,936 species across 794 ecoregions, making it one of the most extensive global assessments of climate-induced habitat vulnerability.

¨   Dominance of heatwaves: Heatwaves have been identified as the most widespread and dominant threat, followed by wildfires, droughts, and floods, all of which contribute significantly to ecosystem stress and habitat degradation.

¨    Projected exposure by 2050: By 2050, heatwaves are projected to affect around 74% of habitats, while wildfires, droughts, and floods are expected to impact approximately 16%, 8%, and 3%, respectively.

¨   Escalation by 2085: By the end of the century, the intensity and scale of exposure are expected to increase further, with heatwaves potentially affecting up to 93% of species’ geographic ranges, along with significant increases in wildfire, drought, and flood risks.

¨  Hotspots of vulnerability: Biodiversity-rich regions such as the Amazon Basin, tropical Africa, and Southeast Asia are expected to face the highest levels of exposure and ecological stress.

¨    Compound risk escalation: The number of ecoregions exposed to multiple extreme events is projected to increase sharply from 22 by 2050 to 236 by 2085, highlighting the rapidly intensifying nature of compound climate risks.

¨  Evidence of ecological damage: Past extreme events have already caused significant ecological damage, including population declines exceeding 25% in over 100 documented cases and instances of local extinctions.

¨    Mitigation potential: The study indicates that if global emissions are reduced to net-zero, the exposure of habitats to multiple extreme events could decline substantially to around 9%, underscoring the critical importance of climate mitigation efforts.

Implications of the Findings

¨    Accelerated biodiversity loss: The increasing frequency and intensity of compound extreme events are likely to accelerate biodiversity loss by pushing many species beyond their ecological tolerance limits, thereby increasing the risk of extinction.

¨   Ecosystem instability: These extreme events disrupt key ecological processes such as pollination, nutrient cycling, and food chain dynamics, leading to long-term instability and degradation of ecosystems.

¨     Reduced adaptive capacity of species: The ability of species to adapt, migrate, or recover is significantly constrained under conditions of repeated and overlapping climate stresses, particularly for endemic and geographically restricted species.

¨    Challenges to conventional conservation approaches: Traditional conservation strategies, which are largely based on gradual climatic changes, are becoming inadequate and must be replaced with dynamic, climate-resilient, and risk-based planning frameworks.

¨   Threat to ecosystem services and human well-being: The degradation of biodiversity and ecosystems directly impacts essential services such as food security, water availability, and climate regulation, thereby affecting human livelihoods and economic stability.

Global Initiatives for Conservation of Terrestrial Biodiversity

¨    Convention on Biological Diversity (CBD): The CBD provides a global framework for conserving biodiversity, promoting sustainable use of biological resources, and ensuring equitable sharing of benefits arising from genetic resources.

¨   Kunming–Montreal Global Biodiversity Framework (2022): This framework sets ambitious global targets, including the protection of 30% of terrestrial and marine areas by 2030 (30×30 target) and the restoration of degraded ecosystems.

¨  Convention on International Trade in Endangered Species (CITES): CITES regulates international trade in endangered species to prevent over-exploitation and ensure their long-term survival.

¨     UN Decade on Ecosystem Restoration (2021–2030): This initiative aims to scale up efforts to restore degraded ecosystems, thereby enhancing resilience against climate change and biodiversity loss.

¨  Intergovernmental Science-Policy Platform on Biodiversity and Ecosystem Services (IPBES): IPBES provides scientific assessments and policy guidance to support evidence-based decision-making for biodiversity conservation at global and national levels.