Global Terrorism Index 2026: Emerging
Threats Amidst a Decline
The 2026 Global Terrorism Index (GTI) report
highlights a decline in terrorist incidents during the year 2025. This decline
is attributed to global security efforts, improved intelligence mechanisms, and
international cooperation. However, the report also warns that emerging
conflicts and regional instability could lead to a resurgence of terrorism in
the future.
About the Report
¨
The Global Terrorism
Index (GTI), published by the Institute for Economics and Peace (IEP), is a
comprehensive study analysing the impact of terrorism across 163 countries,
covering 99.7% of the world’s population.
¨
The report is based on a
database of over 66,000 terrorist incidents recorded since 2007, and provides
insights into long-term global trends and patterns in terrorism.
The GTI score is calculated using four key
indicators
¨
Number of terrorist
incidents
¨
Number of fatalities
¨
Number of injuries
¨
Number of hostages
Each indicator is weighted and averaged over a
five-year period, allowing the Index to capture both the immediate and
long-term psychological and societal impacts of terrorism.
Key Findings of the Report
Global Trends
¨
Terrorism-related deaths
declined by 28% to 5,582, while incidents fell by 22% to 2,944, the lowest
levels since 2007.
¨
81 countries recorded
improvement, while only 19 deteriorated, marking the lowest deterioration count
in the Index’s history.
¨
Despite this improvement,
terrorism remains a significant global threat, and future risks are rising due
to geopolitical instability.
Regional Concentration and Shifting
Epicentre
¨
Terrorism remains highly
concentrated, with nearly 70% of deaths occurring in five countries: Pakistan,
Burkina Faso, Nigeria, Niger, and the Democratic Republic of the Congo.
¨
Sub-Saharan Africa,
particularly the Sahel region, remains the global epicentre, accounting for
more than half of global terrorism deaths.
¨
Over time, the epicentre
of terrorism has shifted from the Middle East and North Africa to the Sahel.
Pakistan as the Most Affected Country
¨
Pakistan has replaced
Burkina Faso as the world’s most terrorism-affected country, recording 1,139
deaths and 1,045 incidents, the highest since 2013, marking the sixth
consecutive year of rising terrorism fatalities.
¨
The key drivers include
the resurgence of Tehrik-e-Taliban Pakistan (TTP), activities of the
Balochistan Liberation Army (BLA), and instability along the Afghanistan border
after the Taliban’s return in 2021.
India
¨
India ranked 13th in the
GTI 2026 with a score of 6.428, improving by two positions, recording a decline
in terrorism-related deaths and a significant reduction in terror incidents,
with around a 43% fall.
¨
The country accounted for
approximately 2% of global terrorism fatalities.
Performance of Other Countries
¨
Nigeria and the Democratic
Republic of the Congo recorded significant increases in terrorism-related
deaths.
¨
Burkina Faso, though
previously the most affected, saw the largest decline in deaths (45%).
Terrorist Organisations
¨
The Islamic State (IS)
and its affiliates remained the deadliest terrorist organisation, responsible
for nearly 17% of global attacks.
¨
The four deadliest groups
— IS, JNIM, TTP, and Al-Shabaab — together accounted for 70% of global
terrorism deaths.
¨
Among them, TTP was the
only group to record an increase in deaths.
Rising Concerns in the West
¨
Terrorism deaths in
Western countries increased by 280%, though overall numbers remain low.
¨
The rise is driven by
political extremism, antisemitism and ideological violence, and an increase in
lone-wolf attacks, which accounted for 93% of fatal attacks.
Youth Radicalisation
¨
Youth radicalisation has
emerged as a major global threat.
¨
Around 42% of terror
investigations in Europe and North America involve minors, and radicalisation
timelines have shortened to weeks due to online propaganda.
¨
The causes vary across
regions, with social isolation and alienation being key drivers in the West,
while human rights abuses and lack of employment are major factors in Sub-Saharan
Africa.
Borderland Terrorism
¨
Terrorism is increasingly
concentrated near borders, with 41% of attacks occurring within 50 km and 64%
within 100 km of borders.
¨
Border regions act as
security vacuums due to weak governance and poor cross-border coordination.
¨
Major hotspots include
the Afghanistan–Pakistan borderlands, the Sahel tri-border region, and the Lake
Chad Basin.
Emerging Risks and Future Outlook
¨ The report warns that current improvements may be temporary due to rising global conflicts in regions such as the Middle East and South Asia, potential instability in Iran, and the expansion of terrorist networks
¨ Ongoing conflicts may displace populations, weaken border control, and create conditions conducive to terrorism resurgence.
