Increasing Likelihood of El Niño in Late 2026: Indication from Global Climate Models

Global climate models are pointing toward an increasing probability of the emergence of El Niño conditions in the latter half of 2026, marking a potential shift in the El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) cycle. In its latest ‘El Niño-Southern Oscillation’ (ENSO) bulletin, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) has estimated that there is an approximately 62% probability of El Niño emerging during June–August 2026, and it could persist through the end of 2026. The India Meteorological Department (IMD) has also indicated that El Niño conditions could develop in India after July this year; however, this will become clear only in the month of April. The latest climate models indicate a greater than 50% probability of El Niño developing in India after June—a likelihood that rises to approximately 70% during the months of July, August, and September. The timing of El Niño may coincide with India's core monsoon months (June–September), during which approximately 70% of the annual rainfall occurs. This could heighten the vulnerability of rain-fed agriculture. Past cycles indicate that ENSO events recur every 2 to 7 years. Historically, approximately 60% of El Niño years in India have been associated with below-normal rainfall. The previous major El Niño event (2023–24) was correlated with below-normal rainfall during the Indian monsoon.

El Niño and La Niña

¨     The El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is a periodic climate phenomenon. It involves variations in sea surface temperatures (SST) and atmospheric circulation within the equatorial Pacific Ocean.

Normal Conditions

¨     Trade winds typically blow from east to west along the equator.

¨     Under the influence of these winds, warm surface water accumulates in the western part of the Pacific Ocean (near Indonesia and Australia), while cold, nutrient-rich water upwells near South America.

¨     Conversely, in the eastern Pacific Ocean near South America (specifically off the coast of Peru), the upwelling—the rising of cold, nutrient-rich water from the deep ocean—continues.

El Niño Phase (Warm Phase)

¨     Weakening or reversal of trade winds.

¨     Shift of warm water toward the east.

¨     Reduction in upwelling, leading to disruptions in global atmospheric circulation.

It is defined as a condition in which the sea surface temperature (SST) rises to at least 0.5°C above normal for a sustained period.

La Niña Phase (Cold Phase)

¨     Strengthening of trade winds.

¨     Enhanced upwelling causes sea surface temperatures in the eastern Pacific to become cooler than normal.

¨     Intensification of normal circulation patterns.

Impacts of El Niño

Global

¨     Due to the release of excess oceanic heat, El Niño years are often among the warmest years on record.

¨     This phenomenon alters the Walker Circulation, leading to droughts in India, Australia, and Indonesia; floods in the Americas; and the emergence of heatwave conditions globally.

¨     The Walker Circulation (or Walker Cell) is a dominant east-west atmospheric circulation pattern found in tropical regions. It is primarily driven by differences in surface temperatures across the Pacific Ocean.

¨     During El Niño, the process of upwelling (the rising of cold, nutrient-rich water from the depths to the surface) is disrupted. Consequently, this has an adverse impact on fish stocks and marine biodiversity, particularly in regions of the Pacific Ocean.

Impact on India

¨     El Niño is often associated with below-normal Southwest Monsoon rainfall, which directly affects *Kharif* crops such as rice and pulses.

¨  A reduction in rainfall can lead to a decline in crop yields, an increased demand for irrigation, and the emergence of rural distress.

¨     There is a likelihood of increased heatwave intensity, particularly in North and Central India.

¨  A decline in agricultural production can fuel food inflation, thereby impacting overall macroeconomic stability. Furthermore, a deficit in rainfall adversely affects reservoir levels, groundwater recharge, and the availability of drinking water.