India’s Forests May Boost Carbon Storage Capacity by 2100

A recent modeling study published in the journal Environmental Research: Climate estimates that India’s forests could see a significant increase in their carbon storage capacity by the year 2100, if current greenhouse gas emission trends continue.According to the study, rising levels of carbon dioxide may enhance tree growth, enabling forests to absorb more carbon from the atmosphere. This phenomenon is commonly referred to as the “CO₂ fertilization effect.”

Forest Survey of India (FSI)

¨   FSI is a premier organisation under the Ministry of Environment, Forests and Climate Change (MoEFCC).

¨     It was established in 1981 and headquartered in Dehradun, Uttarakhand.

¨   It is responsible for assessment, monitoring and inventory of India's forest resources.

¨   India State of Forest Report (ISFR) is a biennial publication of Forest Survey of India (FSI) since 1987 and provides an assessment of the country's forest cover based on satellite data mapping.

¨     ISFR 2023 is the 18th report in the series published by the FSI

Key Findings of Study

¨   Sharp Rise in Carbon Storage:The study estimates that vegetation carbon biomass in India’s forests may increase by 35% under a low emission scenario, 62% under a medium emission pathway, and up to 97% under a high emission fossil fuel intensive scenario.

¨  All scenarios show similar trends until around 2030, after which they diverge sharply. The steepest increase in forest carbon is expected after 2050.

Key Drivers of Forest Carbon Increase

¨    Role of Precipitation: Higher rainfall across most regions improves soil moisture and supports enhanced tree growth and biomass accumulation.

¨  Role of Carbon Dioxide Fertilisation: Increasing atmospheric carbon dioxide enhances photosynthesis and improves water use efficiency in vegetation.

¨   Time Lag in Ecosystem Response: Rainfall effects on vegetation appear with a delay of about 2 years in low and medium emission scenarios and about 4 years in high emission scenarios due to slow ecological response and biomass buildup.

Regional Variation in Carbon Storage Potential

¨     High Growth Regions: The highest increase in vegetation carbon, exceeding 60% under high emission scenarios, is projected in desert and semi arid regions such as Rajasthan, Gujarat, western Madhya Pradesh and adjoining dry interiors.

¨  Moderate Growth Regions: Moderate increases are expected in the Trans Himalayan region, the Gangetic plains and the Deccan Peninsula.

¨     Low Growth Regions: Relatively lower increases are projected in the Western Ghats and the Himalayas due to ecological saturation and climatic constraints despite their ecological significance.

Comparison with Forest Survey of India Data

¨     Historical Carbon Stock Trends: According to the Forest Survey of India, India’s forest carbon stock has increased from 6.94 billion tonnes in 2013 to 7.29 billion tonnes in 2023.

¨   Future Projection: It is projected to reach 8.65 billion tonnes by 2030 based on field measurements and remote sensing data that reflect observed forest conditions.