Middle East Crisis May Slow Global Economic Growth and Impact Labour Markets: ILO Report 2026

International Labour Organization (ILO), in its latest report titled “Employment and Social Trends: May 2026 Update,” has warned that the ongoing crisis in the Middle East could slow down global economic growth and negatively impact labour markets worldwide. According to the report, rising geopolitical tensions and economic uncertainty may weaken employment generation and affect workers’ incomes across many countries.The report highlights that instability in the Middle East could disrupt global trade, increase energy prices, and create uncertainty in international markets. These developments may reduce investment and industrial activity, thereby slowing economic expansion. Developing and low-income countries are expected to face greater challenges in maintaining stable employment opportunities.

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¨     The report is an update under the broader ILO Employment and Social Trends 2026 series, assessing global labour market conditions and emerging risks.

¨     The ILO warned that prolonged geopolitical instability in West Asia could lead to substantial job losses, declining labour incomes, worsening working conditions, and increased vulnerabilities for migrant workers and remittance-dependent economies.

¨     The report particularly highlights the global spillover effects of rising oil prices, disruptions in shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, reduced tourism activity, inflationary pressures, and slower investment flows.

Key Findings of the Report

Global Labour Market Risks from the West Asia Crisis:

Under a severe scenario where oil prices rise by around 50% above their January–February 2026 average:

¨     Global hours worked could decline by 0.5% in 2026 and 1.1% in 2027, equivalent to nearly 14 million and 38 million full-time jobs respectively.

¨     Real labour income could decline by 1.1% in 2026 and 3% in 2027, translating into losses of around US$ 1.1 trillion and US$ 3 trillion respectively.

¨     The global unemployment rate could increase by 0.1 percentage points in 2026 and 0.5 percentage points in 2027, resulting in around 5 million additional unemployed people in 2026 and nearly 20 million in 2027.

Migrant Workers and Remittance Economies Most Vulnerable:

¨     According to ILO estimates, in Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries, for every 1% decline in employment among nationals, employment among non-nationals (migrant workers) declines by nearly 4% during crisis periods.

¨     Remittance-dependent developing countries could therefore face significant economic stress through reduced overseas employment opportunities and slower remittance inflows.

Persistent Structural Weaknesses in Global Labour Markets:

¨     The report noted that global labour markets remain structurally fragile despite relatively stable unemployment levels due to high informality, widening inequalities, weak productivity growth, youth unemployment, and stagnating job quality.

¨     Around 2.1 billion workers globally continue to remain in informal employment without adequate social protection or labour rights.

Risks to Decent Work and Social Stability

¨     The ILO warned that prolonged geopolitical instability and economic shocks could worsen poverty, deepen inequalities, and increase “decent work deficits”, particularly in low-income and developing countries.