IGCC 2025 Study: Human Contribution to Global Warming Reaches Record High

According to the ‘Indicators of Global Climate Change (IGCC) 2025’ study published in the journal *Earth System Science Data*, the contribution of human activities to global warming reached an all-time high in 2025. This finding indicates that the impact of continuously rising greenhouse gas emissions on Earth's climate system is becoming increasingly severe.

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¨     The IGCC study provides annual updates on key climate indicators between major Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) assessment reports and is prepared by an international team of climate scientists.

¨     The findings broadly corroborate the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) assessment that 2025 was among the warmest years on record, although slightly cooler than 2024 due to natural climatic variability.

¨     The study also warns that the remaining carbon budget for limiting warming to 1.5°C is shrinking rapidly, leaving very little room for continued emissions at current levels.

Key Findings of the Study

¨     Human Contribution to Warming Reaches Record High: The average global temperatures in 2025 were about 1.39°C higher than the 1850–1900 pre-industrial baseline. Of the total increase, human-induced warming reached 1.37°C, the highest level recorded so far, indicating that human activities account for almost the entirety of long-term global warming in 2025.

¨     Natural Variability vs Human Influence: Although 2025 was influenced by La Niña conditions, which typically have a cooling effect on global temperatures, human-induced warming still reached a record high, demonstrating that anthropogenic greenhouse gas emissions remain the dominant driver of long-term climate change.

¨     Consistent Rise in Human-Induced Warming: The contribution of human activities to global warming has steadily increased from 1.31°C in 2023 to 1.36°C in 2024 and 1.37°C in 2025, indicating a persistent upward trend despite year-to-year fluctuations in observed temperatures caused by natural climate variability.

¨     Human-induced warming increased at an average rate of around 0.27°C per decade during 2015–2024, reflecting the continued growth in greenhouse gas emissions and atmospheric concentrations.

¨     Greenhouse Gas Emissions at an All-Time High: Global greenhouse gas emissions reached 56.8 billion tonnes of CO₂-equivalent in 2025, the highest level ever recorded, continuing to strengthen the warming effect of the atmosphere.

¨     Carbon Budget Rapidly Shrinking: The remaining carbon budget for a 50% probability of limiting warming to 1.5°C has declined to approximately 130 billion tonnes of CO₂ from the beginning of 2026.

¨     At current emission rates, this budget could be exhausted in less than three years, significantly narrowing the window for achieving the Paris Agreement target.

Significance of the Findings

¨     Warning for the Paris Agreement Goals: The study indicates that the world is dangerously close to exhausting the remaining carbon budget consistent with the 1.5°C temperature goal, making immediate and substantial emission reductions imperative.

¨     Stronger Evidence of Human Influence: The finding that 1.37°C out of the total 1.39°C warming in 2025 was human-induced provides compelling evidence that anthropogenic activities remain the principal driver of climate change.

¨     Increasing Climate Risks: Rising temperatures and accelerating heat accumulation increase the likelihood of extreme weather events such as heatwaves, floods, droughts, wildfires and intense precipitation episodes.

¨     Implications for India and Other Developing Countries: Countries such as India face heightened risks to agriculture, water resources, food security, public health and disaster management, underscoring the need for both climate mitigation and adaptation measures.

¨     Need for Urgent Global Climate Action: The rapidly shrinking carbon budget suggests that delaying climate action today will require much steeper and more costly emission reductions in the future.